Above we have a map of Russia and the Ukraine showing the sight of the latest altercation.

The Ukraine has declare martial Law after Russia seized 3 military vessels near the Kersch Straight. Under the terms of a 2003 agreement, the Azov sea and its access point through the Kerch Strait are supposed to be shared by Ukraine and Russia. In 2014 Russia took control of Crimea and the agreement has slowly been eroding away. Russia now controls both the East and West coastline of the Straight and has built what many believe is an illegal bridge across the straights.The kersch Bridge is a 19km bridge that now straddles the straights and connects Crimea directly to Russia.

Russia has upped the protection of the straights since the building of the bridge and this has directly lead to the current altercation between the FSB a Federal Security Service of the Russian Federation and 3 Ukrainian navy boats. Interestingly a strong reaction against Russia has been declared by most members of the United Nations. Even the US Ambassador Nikki Haley has condemned the action by Russia. Mike Pompeo, The US secretary of state is quoted as saying

“The United States condemns this aggressive Russian action. We call on Russia to return to Ukraine its vessels and detained crew members, and to respect Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity within its internationally recognized borders, extending to its territorial waters”

We are in for some interesting times in the months ahead. Analysts are saying with less pressure from the United States and with Europe’s reliance on Russian Gas, the European Winter coming on Russia is feeling embolden to press some of it’s nationalistic claims. The feeling amongst analysts is that Russia will back off as summer comes around again.

With the Annexation of The Crimea and with Russia taking an active role in the war in the Ukraine, world opinion of Putin’s Russia has rarely been lower. This was highlighted when the West came together in March to enforce sanctions on Russia. Since then there have been another two rounds which seem to be having a quicker than expected constrictive affect on the Russian economy.

Today the Ruble dropped by 13% against the greenback and the day hasn’t finished. It is in fact the lowest it has been in five years. Oil prices are dropping again and as the Russian economy is linked to energy prices this slump has magnified the power of the sanctions. The fear that Russia would shut off the gas supply to Europe this year hasn’t seemed to eventuate and the speculation is that Russia can’t afford to carry out the threat without a massively detrimental affect on it’s own economy.

The other rumor is that a shady deal between Russia’s state owned Rosneft and the central bank that was supposed to fool the smart money, didn’t. The deal would allow Rosneft to refinance itself out of foreign bank debt and into Russian banks but this now looks like it has backfired.

With oil prices looking like they will be trending down and OPEC saying they expect low prices for a while as well as that they’re not afraid of $40 a barrel oil. Russia could be in a spot of bother as the economy seems to be geared for approximately $80 a barrel. Russian’s must be looking at Putin and wondering is he really worth all the bother? It looks like 2015 is going to be an interesting year on the world stage.

Followers of the Ukraine versus Russia war in Eastern Europe would be aware of the increase in rhetoric among NATO and other European nations, regarding the need for further sanctions against Russia. Europe watches will know that threats never extend to Russia’s big energy producing companies, Rosneft, Gazprom Neft And Transneft.  It appears this all about to change.

A marked escalation in the actions of Europe’s leaders is rumored to be unleashed this Friday the 12th of September 2014. You might want to mark this day in your diaries as it could end up being one of those days in history. If what Peter Spiegel tweeted is accurate then Europe and Russia are in for one very “interesting” winter. One that will be remembered for generations to come.

Peter Spiegel, the Brussels bureau chief of Financial Times has apparently seen a leaked copy of what is being proposed for the next round of sanctions for Russia over it’s involvement in the Ukraine war. Russia denies any involvement in the war but recent reports have Russian troops and combat vehicles actively participating in the fighting in Easter Ukraine. He tweeted:

 

Leaked copy of Fri night #Russia sanctions deal confirms 3 energy cos to be hit by #EU capital markets ban: Rosneft, Gazprom Neft, Transneft

— Peter Spiegel (@SpiegelPeter) September 7, 2014

This is an extremely bold move by the European heads. Winter is fast approaching and Russian gas has a major role to play in keeping Europe warm through those long cold European winter nights. It will also force Putin’s hand in having to announce retaliatory sanctions. This is not as easy at it seems, Russia relies on much of Europe’s food to keep it’s population fed during those even longer and colder Russian’ winter days and nights.

Russian Attack on Ukraine 2022

Below we have an image showing where the initial attack by the aggressive Russian forces on the Ukraine in march 2022. Experts were expecting Russia to only attack the disputed regions of Donetsk and Luhansk. this appears to be incorrect information as the Russian forces have fired artillery shells all over the Ukraine.

Map of the Ukraine War

Above is a map of the contested regions within Ukraine as of August 2014. This is the second in a series of maps about the war in the Ukraine. The first being about the downing of flight MH13 and where it happened. While we hope that all issues are worked and that the fighting stops, if it doesn’t we will continue to publish updated maps of where the war has spread to. If indeed it does spread.

The Ukraine is subdivided into 24 Oblasts (provinces), most of which have not seen any fighting or unrest. The Oblasts that have seen unrest are as follows :

• The mauve province is the Crimea, which has already been annexed by Russia and is considered Russian territory, although this situation has not been recognized by most of the nations of the UN.
• The green provinces have seen pro-Russian protests but relatively little or no fighting. These provinces are Odessa, Mykolaiv, Kherson, Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhia.
• The blue province is Kharkiv and this is a special region that has been occupied by the Regional State Administration or RSA. Effectively this equates to governor of Texas taking complete control of the state and not being beholden in anyway to Washington. This is a matter that still needs to be resolved.
• The red provinces  of Donetsk and Luhansk are the ones that have seen the most intensive fighting. Thousands of people have been killed in these regions and there looks like no end to the hostilities, at least not in the near future. Donetsk is also the province that the ill-fated flight MH17 flying over when it was shot down by surface to air missiles.

 

 

We have been inundated with requests to show how the Ukraine is split when it comes to Russian speakers and Ukrainian speakers.

So we have put together a political map of  the Ukraine showing the make up of Russian speaking population in the Eastern end of the country.

We have also shown where the flight MH17 was shot down. Most of the area currently in dispute, lies within the region of Donetsk. MH17 was shot down North East of the city of Torez that lies within this region.

The Crimea to the south has already been effectively annexed by Russia although this has not been recognized by any nations.

When looking at this map it begs the question. Why was flight MH17 even flying through that region? There has been intense fighting in the area and many other airlines have been avoiding the flight paths that pass through this war zone.

You will note that the Crimea and Donetsk are the two regions that have the highest Russian speaking population in the Ukraine and are effectively the only areas in dispute to date.